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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.