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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."